Market Commentary - Week ending May 18th

The major U.S. equity market indexes finished the week mixed amid generally subdued trading volumes. 

 

U.S. Markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 116 points or -0.5% to close at 24,715.  By market cap, small caps outperformed their large cap brethren.  The mid cap S&P 400 and small cap Russell 2000 rose 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively, while the large cap S&P 500 fell -0.5%.  The Russell 2000 even regained its prior all-time high, the first of the major averages to do so.

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International Markets:  In international markets, Canada’s TSX followed last week’s gain with an additional 1.1% rise.  The United Kingdom’s FTSE also continued its rally, finishing up 0.7%.  On Europe’s mainland, major markets were mixed.  France’s CAC 40 rose 1.3%, along with Germany’s DAX which added 0.6%.  However, Italy’s Milan FTSE fell almost 3%.  In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite followed last week’s gain with a 1% increase and Japan’s Nikkei finished the week up 0.8%.  Emerging markets, as a group, have suffered from the dollar’s recent strengthening.  As grouped by Morgan Stanley Capital International, developed markets retreated -0.6% while emerging markets fell over -2.8%.

 

Commodities:  Precious metals also suffered from a rising dollar this week, with gold losing -2.2% and silver retreating -1.8%.  The industrial metal copper, viewed by analysts as a gauge of worldwide economic health due to its variety of uses, reversed last week’s gain and fell -1.5%.  Energy continued its strong run, rising 5 out of the last 6 weeks and adding another 1% this week.  West Texas Intermediate crude oil ended the week at $71.37 per barrel.

 

U.S. Economic News:  The number of people seeking initial jobless benefits rose last week to its highest level in a month but nonetheless remained near their lowest levels in almost fifty years.  The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 222.000 last week, exceeding economists’ forecasts of a 215,000 reading.  The less-volatile monthly average of new claims fell by 2,750 to 213,250.  Job openings remain at a record high, unemployment remains below 4% and most companies are continuing to hire nine years after the current economic recovery began.  Continuing claims, which counts the number of people already receiving unemployment benefits, fell by 87,000 to 1.71 million.  That reading is at its lowest level  since 1973.

Confidence among the nation’s home builders rose in May according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index rose two points to a level of 70, beating economists’ forecasts for a reading of 69.  Readings over 50 indicate that more builders view conditions as positive.  In the details of the report, the current sales conditions index rose while those for buyer traffic and expectations in the next six months remained unchanged.  Overall, with low unemployment and a shortage of housing inventory builders remain confident.  Rising lumber and labor prices remain a concern, however. 

 

 

Our Short Term Indicator remains Bullish. Guages_1.3-02

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