S&P Futures pricing in 100% chance of a rate cut??

The Federal Reserve and Federal Open Market Committee opted to not change interest rates during their meeting yesterday, which, rather than deflating the high hopes of the stock market, only increased the frenzy. Today (as of 2:35 EDT) the S&P 500 is up .75% with the Dow in the same range. 

S&P futures traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut as early as July. That said, bond funds did not respond in kind, only rising .15% on average. Our read at PIR is that while a rate cute would benefit bond funds, people are not ready to flee to safety just yet. Although investors are not prepared to liquidate their equity positions, there has been money moving to gold, particularly SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). This move most is most likely a hedge against the rise in inflation that would result from lowered rates.

The Strait of Hormuz is a point of conflict again this week after a U.S. military drone was shot down by an Iranian missile today. This could have enormous price consequences in energy commodities, particularly oil distillates. The price of crude oil has already spiked, up 2.8%.

Nathaniel Hoskin

Written by Nathaniel Hoskin

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