We got new economic data!
Retail sales increased by +0.5% in May compared to the April values. This was slightly short of the +0.7% estimate, but is in no way bad news. Industrial production hit it out of the park, increasing by +0.4%, almost a full percentage point above the estimated -0.5%. With these closing numbers and based on Q1 GDP, annual GDP is forecast at +3.1%.
The May job numbers were not as good as expected. In fact, there weren't enough new hires to replace the amount of baby boomers that are retiring. The trade war is also going to hurt Q2 numbers across the board, which will revise the annual GDP downward and is playing a large role in the Fed's considerations on cutting interest rates.
The Fed meets this month to determine whether to keep interest rates the same, hike them, or cut them. The economic expansion in Q1 supports an interest rate hike, but the stormy skies over Q2 support a cut. This is what we will be monitoring at PIR in the coming weeks.